Indicators
Key Messages
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Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time. It influences weather patterns, and the natural processes that sustain life. It drives shifts in temperature, sea levels, and extreme weather events, disrupting environmental stability and resilience.
Rising global temperatures contribute to extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and shifts in ecosystems, threatening biodiversity and natural habitats. These changes can impact human health, agriculture, and water resources, particularly in vulnerable communities. Increased temperatures and changing rainfall patterns can also lead to more frequent droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms, putting pressure on infrastructure and economies. Addressing climate change is essential to protecting our environment, health, and future sustainability.
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Queensland’s climate is changing due to global warming. As the climate continues to shift throughout this century, its impacts on Queenslanders and the environment are expected to become increasingly pronounced. Increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms within the state are expected to intensify, posing challenges such as bushfires and rising sea levels that endanger coastal communities. Addressing these risks through proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies is essential for protecting the environment, public health, and long-term sustainability.
State
- Ozone concentrations
Ozone levels in Townsville and Gladstone have never exceeded the Ambient Air Quality NEPM 8-hour average standard of 0.065ppm. In the past 20 years, there have been eight years in Southeast Queensland and two years in South West Queensland when the 8-hour standard has been exceeded on at least one day.
All exceedances are linked to extra emissions of photochemical smog-forming pollutants from major bushfires.
- Visibility-reducing particles
In the past 20 years, we have seen a downward trend in the number of days with reduced visibility (defined as a visual distance of less than 20 kilometres) throughout Queensland.
In 2000, 2001 and 2009, we had more than ten reduced visibility days in all Queensland regions due to dry conditions and widespread bushfires.
Due to localised bushfires or hazard-reduction burning, Southeast Queensland recorded additional days (+10 within the year) with reduced visibility in 2004, 2012, 2019 and 2023.
- Particulate concentrations
Particle pollution is Queensland’s most significant air quality issue. Since 2009, windblown dust has been responsible for over 70% of all exceedances of the Ambient Air Quality NEPM 24-hour PM10 standard, mainly from wind erosion of bare ground during dry conditions. In 2023, PM10 levels increased in most regions, mainly due to more bushfires and hazard-reduction burning because of high vegetation fuel loads following two years of above-average rainfall.
- Carbon monoxide concentrations
Carbon monoxide levels have declined over the past decade, with levels in the last five years less than 15% of the National Environmental Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure air quality standard of 9ppm.
- Lead concentrations
Lead monitoring results from Mount Isa and Townsville show that the rolling 12-month average lead concentrations are below the National Environmental Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure annual average air quality standard of 0.50 micrograms per cubic metre.
- Nitrogen dioxide concentrations
Levels of nitrogen dioxide across Queensland are consistently well below the National Environment Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure annual average standard of 0.015ppm. Since 2000, the only exceedances of the one-hour average standard of 0.08ppm on one day have been in Southeast Queensland and Gladstone.
- Sulfur dioxide concentrations
Sulfur dioxide levels in all regions, except for South West Queensland and Townsville, have occasionally exceeded the National Environmental Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure 24-hour and one-hour average standards of 0.020 parts per million (ppm) and 0.100ppm, respectively, due to industry emissions.
- Total annual greenhouse gas emissions
In 2022, Queensland’s total greenhouse gas emissions were 124.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), including emissions from the land use, land use change and forestry sector. Queensland’s total emissions made up 28.7% of Australia’s total. Between 2005 and 2022, Queensland's emissions decreased by 35%.
- Stationary and industrial energy sector greenhouse gas emissions
In Queensland in 2022, the stationary and industrial energy sector was the second highest emitter after public electricity. The stationary and industrial energy sector contributed 25.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) or 20.8% of total emissions. Between 2005 and 2022, emissions increased by 52% due to strong growth in mining and exports and long-term growth in the population and economic activity.
- Transport sector greenhouse gas emissions
In 2022, emissions from the transport sector contributed 21.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) or 17.3% of Queensland’s total emissions. Emissions increased by 20.2% between 2005 and 2022 due to population and commercial activity growth and the importance of motor vehicles for passengers and freight in Queensland.
- Agriculture sector greenhouse gas emissions
In 2022, emissions from the agricultural sector contributed 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) or 16.9% of total emissions in Queensland.
Emissions decreased by 6.7% between 2005 and 2022. The level of emissions typically varies in response to climatic and market conditions but has otherwise remained relatively stable compared with other sectors.
- Land use, land use change and forestry sector greenhouse gas emissions
In 2022, net emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) showed a 124% reduction below 2005 levels to -15.9 MtCO2-e. In Queensland, LULUCF is acting as a carbon sink—a trend since 2021. Reduced vegetation clearing is the primary driver of LULUCF emissions reductions.
- Industrial processes sector greenhouse gas emissions
In 2022, emissions from the industrial processes sector contributed 5.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent or 4.7% of Queensland’s total emissions. The sector’s emissions increased by 13.4% between 2005 and 2022, mainly due to air-conditioning and refrigeration use.
- Fugitive emissions sector greenhouse gas emissions
Fugitive emissions are losses, leaks, and other releases of gases such as methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere associated with industries producing natural gas, oil and coal. In 2022, fugitive emissions contributed 18.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, 14.6% of Queensland’s total emissions. Between 2005 and 2022, fugitive emissions increased by 39.9%.
- Waste sector greenhouse gas emissions
In 2022, emissions from the waste sector contributed 2.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent or 2.3% of Queensland’s total emissions. Emissions increased by 2.7% between 2005 and 2022. However, landfill emissions have fallen by 1% since 2005 due to increased capture and combustion of landfill gas.
- Mean annual temperature
Three of the five years from 2019 to 2023 were amongst Queensland’s top ten warmest on record. The 30-year state-average annual temperature is 24°C. The yearly average has warmed by around +1.5°C since records began in 1910, with most warming over the last 50-60 years.
- Extreme weather events (‘hot’ days)
Hot days are common in inland areas, but they are comparatively low on Queensland’s eastern seaboard. The frequency of higher-than-average hot days for some inland locations was above average throughout 2023.
- Sea surface temperature
Oceans play a significant role in regulating global climate systems. Average sea surface temperatures have continued to increase over the past ten years. For the Coral Sea region, which is representative of conditions near Queensland, the average sea-surface temperature from 2014 to 2023 was the warmest on record.
- Sea level
According to historical Queensland tide gauge records, Queensland’s sea levels are rising by 3.0 mm/year. This trend aligns with the global long-term trend.
- Condition of ecological processes on the Great Barrier Reef
Since 2019, most ecological processes on the Great Barrier Reef have remained generally stable. Reef building continues to deteriorate due to the impact of ocean acidification on calcification rates. Trends in recruitment are variable, but declines have been observed in some populations, including dugongs, turtles, and some coral species.
Pressure
- Vehicle kilometres travelled
In Queensland, total motor vehicle travel (by passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, trucks, and buses) has fluctuated over the last few decades, stabilising in recent years to around 51 billion kilometers. Reductions in vehicle kilometres travelled during 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 can be attributed mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic travel restrictions and the increased prevalence of remote working. However, the long-term upward trend suggests that emissions will likely continue to rise without significant interventions to improve vehicle technology or travel behaviour.
- Number of registered vehicles
From 2020 to 2024, registered motor vehicles increased by 13%. Cars comprise about 65% of all registered vehicles, followed by light commercial vehicles at 23%. Hybrid and electric vehicles only make up 4% of all registered vehicles. During 2020-2024, the number of all vehicle types increased, with the most significant increase in campervans/motorhomes and motorised wheelchairs. Our growing population drives this continued and sustained growth.
- Vehicle emissions
Emissions from motor vehicles are a function of many factors. The most important factors are total travel, fleet mix, emission control technology and driving behaviour. Greenhouse gas emissions for motor vehicles in Queensland increased by about 20% from 2010 to 2019. Compared to 2010, the total 2019 emissions were less for most air pollutants. This reflects the effectiveness of emission control technologies and fleet turnover.
- Major air pollutants from industry
Across the state, primary metal manufacturing, coal mining and electricity supply are the main sources of industrial air pollutants. The top four industrial pollutants by tonnes/annum are:
- sulfur dioxide
- particulate matter (PM10)
- oxides of nitrogen
- carbon monoxide.
- Extent of drought declarations in Queensland
Over the past decade, 60% of Queensland has consistently been under drought declaration, with south-western regions experiencing drought 40-60% of the time. In 2024, the state saw significant improvement, with no drought declarations for the first time since 2013.
- Heatwave events
Heatwaves are the fifth highest risk management priority for Queensland. They claim more lives than any other natural hazard in Queensland and Australia. Since 1958, there has been an observable increase in heatwaves of all severities.
- Fire weather and associated bushfire hazard
An analysis of the long-term changes in fire-weather conditions for Queensland between 1950 and 2018 confirms higher temperatures, less rain in most parts of the state and longer, earlier fire seasons.
- Severe weather events (flooding and cyclones)
Queensland experienced eight severe tropical cyclones between 1 January 2020 and 1 April 2024 and more than five cyclones of other intensities. Tropical cyclones are travelling slower and southward, with increasing rainfall intensity giving rise to potentially extreme associated flooding. Observations generally suggest a rise in extreme severe weather events due to climate change.
- Coastal hazard erosion-prone area
Mainland beaches and coastlines from Cape York to Bundaberg remain in good condition. Coastlines across the state are dynamic. Within the Great Barrier Reef Region observed changes over recent years likely reflect natural variations in climatic and oceanic influences predominantly. However, sea-level rise is expected to increase erosion rates, recession and inundation in the coming decades.
- Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area
The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2024 provides assessments of the impact of climate change for the Great Barrier Reef ’s ecological, heritage, economic and social values and the risk posed by threats posed by climate change into the future.
As the Outlook Report’s grading assessments are not specific to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area boundaries, relevant information and links are provided on the Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef page.
- Climate change and the Wet Tropics of Queensland
Climate change, through extreme weather events, including cyclones, drier dry periods, and heatwaves, is a very high threat to the Wet Tropics' unique biodiversity. Recent widespread landslides from extreme weather events have left large-scale scours in key parts of the World Heritage Area. The impacts on its Outstanding Universal Value and biodiversity are yet to be fully quantified and understood.
- Climate change and the Australian Fossil Mammal Sites - Riversleigh section - World Heritage
Threats to the Riversleigh section of the Australian Fossil Mammal Sites include possible fossil displacement from large-scale flooding. The impacts of flooding in 2023 will be monitored through fossil health check monitoring. The impact of climate change on this World Heritage site is considered very low.
- Climate change and the K'gari (Fraser Island)
Overall, climate change impacts on K’gari, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and more frequent and extreme weather events, pose a high threat to species composition, coastal processes, fire regimes and hydrological processes.
- Climate change and the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia (Queensland Section)
Climate change presents one of the greatest emerging threats to the Outstanding Universal Values of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia (Queensland sections). The impacts include: higher temperatures; extended periods of drought; more frequent and intense storms and changes to the cloud base, mist availability or rainfall.
- Extent of burned area
From 2017 to 2023, the calendar year with the highest total area burned was 2023, with an area 23% greater than the average for all the years from 2017 to 2023. Burned areas include all fires (fires and wildfires) across all tenures. A combination of elevated biomass, below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures contributed to Queensland’s fire activity during 2023.
- Pressures affecting riverine ecosystem health
Overall, the common drivers affecting Queensland's monitored waterway catchments are climate change, climate variability, population growth and economic growth.
- Pressures affecting marine ecosystems
Pressures affecting marine ecosystems within the Great Barrier Reef Catchments are catchment and coastal development, extreme weather events and climate change. In South East Queensland, the major pressures affecting marine ecosystem health are sediment and the long-term loss of riparian or riverbank vegetation, exacerbated by climate change and population growth.
- Major threats to fauna species
The threats affecting most fauna species are habitat loss and fragmentation, and invasive and problematic species, such as feral predators. The impacts associated with climate change have also been identified as a frequent factor in the persistence of fauna species in Queensland.
- Major threats to flora species
The broad threats affecting most flora species are habitat loss and fragmentation and inherent risks associated with the small size of many of these plant populations.