Climate observations
Key Messages
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Climate refers to the long-term patterns of temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation in a specific region, shaped by natural cycles and human activities. At the same time, weather describes the atmospheric conditions over a short period. In Queensland, recent observations indicate significant shifts in climate patterns, including rising temperatures, altered rainfall distributions, and increased frequency of extreme weather events.
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Climate observation and monitoring are essential for understanding long-term climate patterns, detecting changes, and predicting future climate conditions. This data supports climate modelling, informs policy decisions, and helps communities prepare for and adapt to climate-related risks like droughts, floods, extreme heat and cyclones.
Monitoring also ensures compliance with international climate commitments and enables early warning systems for natural disasters, ultimately protecting human societies and the environment.
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Queensland’s highly variable and changing climate is increasingly influencing the severe weather events we experience as they are occurring in a more energetic climate system. Whilst overall precipitation rates have fallen, long-term observations have shown that there has been a net increase in the number of heavy to extreme rain events since 1951. Such increases have and will continue to yield occurrences of associated major flooding events. Whilst severe thunderstorms are a long-standing feature of Queensland's climate, a more energetic climate has resulted in an observed increase in the most damaging severe storm events.
Key Facts
State
- Annual rainfall
Queensland's state-averaged annual rainfall is 618mm, but it is highly variable from year to year and decade to decade. Average to above-average rainfall in many areas from 2021 to 2023 provided a respite from the much-drier-than-average conditions that dominated from 2013 to 2020.
- Evaporation rate
The average annual evaporation is approximately 3,000mm in inland Queensland, where it rains less, and less than 2,400mm in many coastal and sub-coastal areas. Evaporation depends on many factors, and assessing long-term pan evaporation trends is difficult.
- Mean annual temperature
Three of the five years from 2019 to 2023 were amongst Queensland’s top ten warmest on record. The 30-year state-average annual temperature is 24°C. The yearly average has warmed by around +1.5°C since records began in 1910, with most warming over the last 50-60 years.
- Extreme weather events (‘hot’ days)
Hot days are common in inland areas, but they are comparatively low on Queensland’s eastern seaboard. The frequency of higher-than-average hot days for some inland locations was above average throughout 2023.
Pressure
- Extent of drought declarations in Queensland
Over the past decade, 60% of Queensland has consistently been under drought declaration, with south-western regions experiencing drought 40-60% of the time. In 2024, the state saw significant improvement, with no drought declarations for the first time since 2013.
- Heatwave events
Heatwaves are the fifth highest risk management priority for Queensland. They claim more lives than any other natural hazard in Queensland and Australia. Since 1958, there has been an observable increase in heatwaves of all severities.
- Fire weather and associated bushfire hazard
An analysis of the long-term changes in fire-weather conditions for Queensland between 1950 and 2018 confirms higher temperatures, less rain in most parts of the state and longer, earlier fire seasons.
- Severe weather events (flooding and cyclones)
Queensland experienced eight severe tropical cyclones between 1 January 2020 and 1 April 2024 and more than five cyclones of other intensities. Tropical cyclones are travelling slower and southward, with increasing rainfall intensity giving rise to potentially extreme associated flooding. Observations generally suggest a rise in extreme severe weather events due to climate change.