Threat assessment

The assessment of threats is outlined in the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia Conservation Outlook Assessment from 2014, 2017 and 2020. Reporting of Outlook Assessment has changed from every three years to every five years and the next report is due in 2025.

Climate change impacts

Projected climate change impacts are emerging as a high-level threat to the property’s Outstanding Universal Value. The impacts include:

• increased average temperatures in all seasons
• more hot days and warm spells with a substantial increase in the temperature reached on hot days
• extended periods of drought
• more frequent and intense storms
• changes to the cloud base, mist availability or rainfall.

Changes in fire regimes, with changes in competition from pest and other transformative species, are likely to further impact habitats and the plants and animals that live there.

Even small climatic changes could change the distribution patterns of many endemic species and vegetation communities.

Climate change is also predicted to exacerbate other threatening processes such as invasive species and pathogens, as well as fluctuations in rainfall patterns and altered fire regimes. In 2019-2020 extensive fires impacted the property. The fires followed and were coincident with a prolonged drought. The Final Report of the NSW Bushfire Inquiry stated that climate change clearly played a role in the extreme 2019/20 fire season.

High-elevation forests

In high-elevation forests, water from clouds and fog provides up to half of the annual water requirements for vegetation. The shifting of the cloud base up the mountains, associated with climate change, will have important implications for forest management, particularly for high-altitude species and vegetation communities with sensitive thermal and moisture tolerances.

Potential threats: Temperature extremes (climate change)

Potential threats include higher temperatures, periods of prolonged drought; a rise in the orographic cloud layer; and exacerbation of fire regimes that are inconsistent with the persistence of rainforest species (ANU, 2009). Unfortunately, the reality of this threat was evidenced in 2019-2020 with the widespread wildfires that burnt an estimated 51% of the World Heritage site. Some of the components were severely affected (DPIE, 2020; DAWE, 2020; Dickman et al., 2020). While longer-term impacts and recovery prospects are still being evaluated (State Party of Australia, 2020), it is clear that given the predicted further change in the climatic conditions, this threat will only continue to increase.

Research and partnerships

The State Government continues to support research about the climate vulnerability of the site’s World Heritage values. This research will enhance management, planning, monitoring and on-ground actions to support the site’s climate resilience.

Partnerships are a priority to inform climate change adaptation planning. We are working with:

• First Nations knowledge holders
• Universities and research institutions
• the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub and Resilient Landscapes Hub

Overall assessment of threats

The impacts of climate change are a major challenge for the protection and management of the Gondwana Rainforests. Climate change may already be impacting some of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage values, with the impacts expected to increase.

World Heritage Advisory Committees have identified deficiencies in the baseline information about the climate risk vulnerabilities of the property.

Climate change risk, vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for the Gondwana Rainforests are underway. These assessments will improve our understanding of the nature of the impacts on the property’s World Heritage values and inform management options. In the short-term, climate change is considered a ‘moderate’ threat; however, as the effects of climate change become more pronounced over the medium to long term, the threat will be considered ‘very high’.

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